The Nature of the Threat
The potential destructive power of biological weapons is enormous,
yet the opportunity for access to dangerous pathogens can be fairly
routine and inexpensive. Moreover, the knowledge and expertise
to obtain or prepare bioweapons are increasingly available, and
the potential for exploitation is embedded in the very scientific
and technological advances that hold promise for improving health
and preventing disease.
"Of all
the various weapons of mass destruction, biological weapons are
of the greatest concern to me...the one that scares me to death."
General Colin Powell, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, before
the House Armed Services Committee March 30, 1993
An attack with a bioweapon could produce an infectious disease
epidemic that would sicken and kill large numbers and persist
over a prolonged period as contagion spreads. Unlike other types
of attack, there would likely be no recognizable event or immediate
casualties, and no physical location where damage is concentrated.
In the absence of an announcement or a fortuitous discovery, authorities
may remain unaware that a biological attack has happened until
days or weeks have passed and victims begin to appear in physicians'
offices and hospital emergency rooms.
Biological weapons are relatively easy to produce and inexpensive.
They can inflict significant damage in small quantities and in
the absence of sophisticated delivery mechanisms. Pathogens suitable
for bioweapons can be easily concealed and transported, and many
are found in nature, as well as in government, university and
industry laboratories. Information about how to obtain and prepare
bioweapons is increasingly available on the Internet and in open
scientific literature. Moreover, bioweapons activities can be
easily hidden within legitimate research laboratories or pharmaceutical
sites.
The idea of a "dual-use dilemma" has emerged because the same
technologies and materials that are used for research to benefit
society can also be used by terrorists to make biological weapons.
The biological threat challenges traditional ways of thinking
about prevention, deterrence and response, requiring us to develop
new tools for threat reduction. Compared with the nuclear and
chemical threats, the strategic and analytic framework for addressing
biological threats and the depth of expertise are much less developed.
The response to the biological threat—with its close links
to naturally occurring infectious disease--requires a new thinking.
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